The yield curve predicts U.S. recessions remarkably well. In March, the yield curve hinted at a U.S. recession

Today, the inversion is broadening as the Fed hikes rates. A U.S. recession may coming. Here’s how the yield curve works and why it matters to financial markets

Economists aren’t prized for their forecasting skills. The yield curve, on the other hand, has a strong track record in calling recessions

The term structure of interest rates, which is the difference between short and long-bond yields, forecasts recessions relatively accurately

When the yield curve inverts, you should worry. Unfortunately, now’s the time to worry. Worse, if the Fed stays on course, that inversion will increase in depth and breadth

The yield curve does provide a mass of information, changing minute by minute. That can be confusing, so the New York Fed researched how best to interpret it in this paper

Not everyone agrees with that view entirely, but most take the view that short rates rising above long rates does not bode well for the U.S. economy and deeper and longer

However, many central banks are expected to raise rates. That would raise the short end of the curve, creating inversion given the term structure of interest rates is quite flat globally